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a few other details from Budget 2021 forecasts
Spotted some further details of note on welfare spending, in addition to those highlighted in our benefits news on the Budget, in the OBR’s March 21 economic forecast -
PIP Upper Tribunal decision CPIP/3062/2016 (supervision counts when hearing aids removed to wash) - costs estimated as £55m over 2021-2026 (table A.3)
Welfare cap - breached in all years from 21/22 - on course to exceed the cap in 2024-25 by £6.9 billion and to exceed the cap plus margin by £3.1 billion (para 4.4)
PIP telephone assessments - effect of suspending face-to-face expected to save £50m across 2020/21 and 2021/22 (Table A.3)
Increased ‘natural migrations’ from legacy benefits due to pandemic - Covid has led to reduced anticipated managed migration volumes by 50,000 (and saving f £470m between 2020/21 and 2025/26 (table A.3) - 3 million cases still on legacy benefits with 1.6 million of those expected to go through managed migration (para A.6)
Final universal credit rollout - still expected to take until September 26 (para A.26)
Tax credit debt transfers to DWP - these have been paused for much of 2020-21, and no confirmed date for resumption (para A.26)
Covid effect on disability/incapacity benefit claims - disability spending estimate revised up by £0.5bn due to assumed covid related health conditions and increased unemployment (para 3.83)