Well, as tends to happen more often than not, I'll play devil's advocate from the LA view point.....
Firstly, was there official error? I'd argue not.
The LA would not necessarily be at fault to continue payment while an investigation was on-going (by either the DWP, or the LA). I don't think the LA is in any way bound to suspend HB/CTB just because IS has been suspended. CSHB/0718/2002 (para 42) may be of interest - there is another CD supporting that analysis, but I don't have access to my "library" at the moment.
In R v South Ribble BC ex p Hamilton (2000), it was found that an LA could go behind the DWP decision where it could be shown that IS was not LAWFULLY being paid - para 27 summarises. However, I don't see that it places a DUTY on the LA to act (depending on the merits of each case).
In R(H) 1/04 (aka CH/0571/2003), it was found that an LA was not required to ascertain whether IS was correct or not.
There are further CDs (again, no library, so no refs for now) that suggest a short delay in terminating a claim is not an official error. The periods covered in those CDs range from 9 days to nearly two months; perhaps indicating that it will again depend on the merits of each case.
Looking at your first argument about changes in entitlement to IS, this looks very interesting. However, even if correct, you still need the overpayment to be caused by "official error" to have any hope of being successful.
Although the above takes the LA arguments (at least in part), my honest objective opinion is that I'd nevertheless be more confident of the LA's position than the clmt's.
Regards
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