Mon 17-Mar-08 01:15 PM by iut044

Why is the trend for the number of people on Incapacity Benefit stable when there is a tougher interpertation of the rules?

Is it because of an aging population?

Quote from newspaper article from October 2007

"The rise in long-term claimants came as the overall total for incapacity benefit claims remained relatively stable, rising from 2.42 million to 2.43 million"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/10/23/nbenefit123.xml

I am not doubting that the government is being tough, I have dealt with clients who have had their entitlement removed when they are unlikely to find work again. I am just curious.

Thanks

the article you quote refers to an increase in long-term claimants. This suggests that there is a fall in short-term claimants - they are moving on and off benefit fairly fast - (at what stage do short term clts metamorphose into long-term???) but that long term claiamnts are not moving off to any significant extent. Many long-term claimants succeed at appeal because the DWP hasn't shown that their condition has changed for the better so they tend to get stuck on beenfit. Even a slow rate of addition from the new short-termers will then increase them, as theya re not flowing off benefit as fast as short-termers. This is of a piece with the evidence about being on benefit for more than 2 years meaning you'r unlikely ever to work again.
However how reliable is the evidence? In the last few years it's often said that the numbers on IB as a whole have actually fallen slightly, implying that people are flowing off slightly faster tahn on.

Then there's lots of questions about lies, damned lies and statistics...